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CompuTrak Handicapper 2005 builds upon the proven
success of previous versions. Further research now gives you an OddsLine
and Summary for fast, profit producing data, a rating that lets you judge
the present Form of a horse, an Improve Number showing you how the
capability of the horse has changed from race to race, and the “Magic”
Number that combines the Boxer Number and Speed Rating to give you an
overall horse rating.
You can see the complete list of the CompuTrak Handicapper 2005 output information in
Appendix A of the “Users Manual”, and
examples of how this information is presented to you in Appendix B.
Click on the links below for brief discussions of some of the CompuTrak
Handicapper 2005 outputs to see how the overall power of the program can point you to
the winning horses, and to see how the outputs are shown to you. |
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OddsLine
Predicted Finish Time
Early Speed
Horse Friction
Boxer Number
Form
Speed Rating
Horse Improvement
Magic Number
Output Appearance |
OddsLine Early Speed, Magic Number,
and Form (see discussions below), are three exceptionally important
descriptors of a horse’s capability. They are combined mathematically to
generate the probability of winning for each of the horses in the race.
The probability of winning is then converted into the odds.
Clearly, the lower the odds, the higher the
probability of the horse winning. This is very useful as part of your
decision making as to whether, and how much, to wager.
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Predicted Finish
Time
Predicted Finish Time is one of the more important CompuTrak outputs.
After all it is the horse with the best finish time that wins the race.
CompuTrak obtains this important value using data such as position and
times at the internal calls and finish, track variant, and weight carried,
in the mathematical equations found in “Engineering Analysis of thorough
bred racing. Predicted Finish Time is a
“relative” finish time which compares the finish time of a horse relative
to the other horses. All previous pace lines have been normalized for track
variant, track par, and weight carried, so all the horses are placed on an
equal footing for today’s race. Since the variant of today’s track is not
known in advance, the Predicted Finish Times are relative, ranking the
horses’ finish times relative to each other. The bottom line: The lower
the Predicted Finish Time, the better.
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Early Speed
Knowing Early Speed gives you another handicapping advantage. This is
especially true in short sprints. The Early Speed provided by CompuTrak is
unique, because it gives you the horse’s speed at the beginning of the
race, unlike. other systems which approximate this speed by using the time
and distance to the first call.
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Horse Friction
One of the more unique CompuTrak outputs arising from the application of
engineering principles to horse racing. It is well known that friction is
an engineering concept that measures impediment to motion. The paper,
“Engineering Analysis of Thoroughbred Racing”
derived the “friction” associated with horses.
Horse Friction is very useful in handicapping because it is a true measure
of the closing capability of a horse, obtained from the data in a horse’s
pace line
Some handicappers examine the “lengths behind” history of a horse in a
race, and by seeing the number of lengths behind the front-runner
decreasing, conclude the horse is a closer. That kind of reasoning is not
necessarily true because the decrease in lengths behind the front-runner
could be caused by the front-runner slowing down, rather than by the horse
in question closing on his own.
Lower Friction numbers indicate a stronger closing capability of the
horse. This means the horse is better able to retain his speed, which, of
course, is also a measure of his stamina. The Friction value is obtained
without reference to other horses in the race; it is a measure of the
closing capability of the horse itself.
A negative value of Friction means that the horse sped up during the race.
This is more common in turf races than those raced on the dirt.
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Boxer Number
The mathematics and derivation of this overall horse rating is shown in
the “Addendum to Engineering Analysis of Thoroughbred Racing.” The rating is based on the comparison of Early Speed and
Friction, (closing ability,) for a standard horse, with that of the horse
being handicapped. The higher the number the better.
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Form
Most of the data about a horse is historical informing us about how a
horse has performed in the past. A critical aspect for successful
handicapping is to assess the present form of a horse so that we might
know what to expect of the horse today. With a special algorithm using
races and workouts, CompuTrak gives you a rating of the horse’s present
Form.. At times, when combined with other CompuTrak information, Form can
be the deciding factor for choosing the winning horse.
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Speed Rating
A rating that helps determine whether the horse ran an “honest” race.
Using Early Speed, and Time, adjusted for Race Distance, the rating
assesses whether a horse truly “tried” in a previous race. If this rating
for a horse is appreciably lower than that in other races, or when
compared with that of the other horses, the effort the horse put into the
race may be suspect.
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Horse Improvement
While it is generally true that horses have a particular running style,
front runner, closer, etc., to some extent, a horse can make a trade off
between early speed and closing capability. Without there being any
inherent improvement in capability, for example, a horse might increase
his early speed at the price of slowing down sooner. The reverse is also
true, the horse, without any change in inherent capability might start off
slower but maintain that early speed longer.
One indication that a horse is truly improving in capability is when both
Early Speed, and closing ability, (Friction) are improving. By using a
form of the relationship between Early Speed and Friction, CompuTrak gives
you a rating number which shows, from one race to the next, whether the
horse has improved, or degraded in capability as determined by the data
from the two races that are compared.
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Magic Number
Named the “Magic” number because of the way it often points to a winner.
It is derived by combining the Boxer Number and Speed Rating.
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Output Appearance
CompuTrak has three output screens for viewing and printing. They are: the
OddsLine and Summary; a more extensive report; and charts (graphs).
The OddsLine and Summary produces successful handicapping, and it is easy
to use the odds it produces and the key information in its summary to
choose good risk to reward horses on which to wager.
The Extensive text has additional information, that will allow you to do
the more in-depth-handicapping that may be necessary from time-to-time. In
addition to the fundamental CompuTrak data, it includes a wealth of
auxiliary information, passed through from the basic BRIS/DRF input data.
(See Appendix B of User's Manual.)
The third output brings charts (graphs) to you, and also, for convenience,
includes much of the key information from the Extensive report. The charts
are a graphical representation of Early Speed, Friction, and Boxer Number,
paceline by paceline for every horse., providing you with a “picture” of
how the horse’s capability and overall performance has been changing over
time. (See Appendix B of User's Manual.)Back to Top
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